CE Spending Looks Dismal - But Macs Set to Hit New All-Time High
The latest ChangeWave consumer survey points to still further declines in consumer spending going forward despite a slight improvement in consumer confidence. But how is the decline in spending affecting key sectors like consumer electronics and PCs?
To find out we looked at consumer electronics spending for the next 90 days – with a special focus on planned PC purchases – along with the stores consumers plan to shop at. The survey was conducted Aug 4-12, 2008, and 4,416 respondents participated.
Consumer Electronics Spending – Still Down. Going forward, planned consumer electronics spending is at near-record lows for a ChangeWave survey. Just 15% of respondents say they'll spend more on electronics over the next 90 days compared to 34% who say they’ll spend less. The net difference between these numbers (-19-pts) is 13-pts lower than at the same time a year ago (Aug 2007).
Online Back-to-School Shopping. We asked respondents doing back-to-school shopping to tell us which online stores they’ll be spending more money at this year compared to last year.
Apple.com (AAPL) was far and away the biggest winner, with 8% of respondents saying they’ll spend "More Money" there than a year ago, while only 4% said they’ll spend "Less Money" (Net Difference Score = +4).
Consumer PC Buying
Going forward, PC buying among consumers remains weak, with just 8% of respondents planning to buy a laptop in the next 90 days and 5% a desktop – down 2-pts from a year ago (August 2007).
But which computer manufacturers do consumers plan to buy from over the next 90 days?
Apple planned purchases for the next 90 days have hit a new all-time high for both Laptops (34%; up 2-pts) and Desktops (30%; up 3-pts).
We also asked whether Apple’s recent release of its 3G iPhone has made respondents more or less likely to buy an Apple Mac computer in the future. A total of 17% say they’re now more likely to buy an Apple laptop or desktop in the future because of the 3G iPhone; only 1% said less likely. These highly positive findings point to the 3G iPhone having at least some “Halo” effect on Mac sales going forward.
When it comes to Apple’s competition, Dell (DELL) PCs appear little changed from our July survey results – with planned purchases of Laptops (28%) down 4-pts and Desktops (28%) up 3-pts. Moreover, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) has also experienced a noticeable decline since July in planned Laptop purchases (20%; down 4-pts) and Desktop purchases (17%; down 3-pts).
We note that almost 70% of HP's sales come from outside the U.S. – whereas our ChangeWave surveys focus primarily on the U.S. market.
Electronics Retailers with Momentum
Although Best Buy (BBY) (40%) remains the number one store respondents say they'll shop at over the next 90 days for home entertainment and networking products, it's showing a 3-pt decline from a year ago (Aug 2007).
Going forward, the stores with the most momentum in electronics are Costco (COST) (26%; up 5-pts Year-Over-Year), Amazon (AMZN) (20%; up 5-pts YOY), Wal-Mart (WMT) (17%; up 6-pts YOY) and Sam's Club (10%; up 3-pts YOY).
The key takeaway from these survey results is that consumer electronics spending will remain weak over the next 90 days. The one bright spot is Apple, whose Mac sales are outperforming and are poised to once again reach new all-time highs.
Discount retailers and wholesale clubs like Costco and Wal-Mart continue to pull market share from the established electronics leaders like Best Buy. Yet another example of the retail spending transformation we’ve been seeing in ChangeWave surveys all year.
Jim Woods co-wrote this article.
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This article summarizes the results of a recent ChangeWave Alliance survey. The Alliance is a research network of 15,000 business, technology and medical professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the front line of technological change. For more info on ChangeWave, or to sign up for real-time alerts email on the hottest technologies and companies, click here.
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This article has 16 comments:
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guliamo
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70 Comments
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Sep 14 09:37 AMWhat isn't rediculous is MAC's market share that keeps growing and growing. I hold Apple stock and plan to do so for a very long wile longer:
1. just started selling over seas.
2. zero debt.
3. king of brands.
The rest is just a bunch of blah blah if you ask me..
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User 261816
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1 Comment
Sep 14 10:27 AMthese are perfectly valid things to ask, and many people certainly have an attitude toward their future consumer spending, ESPECIALLY for the next 2 or 3 months (this is similar to what the monthly Consumer Confidence Index attempts to determine). My god, if you have no idea one way or the other of your short-term purchasing tendencies (and with the holidays coming!) you must live a more chaotic life that most of the respondents.
Is it absolute? Of course not. Is it valuable, on a relative scale? Might it indicate short-term spending trends? Absolutely.
I also own Apple stock (and products) and am confident they'll do well. But if investors like the person above maintain such anti-intellectual, emotionally driven responses -- pro or con -- to the various useful information that comes out, then they will only have themselves to blame if trends overtake them.
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mollytjm
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332 Comments
Sep 14 10:33 AMApple has the best products but also the best interaction with the customer.
Dell still sells because people think it's cheaper so therefore more economical...until they have a virus wipe their hard drive and realize they need to buy virus protection, which doesn't always work.
I wonder if there's data on the difference between IT departments in companies that have gone Mac and those that remain PC. some businesses are cutting the bottom line by switching to Macs and getting rid of some IT people (who are expensive) and using Apples excellent and FREE tech support, when need, which isn't often. also, in areas where there are Apple stores, companies can sign employees up for free classes. I know there's some movement in this direction, i just wonder if anyone has data.
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nukldrager
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246 Comments
Sep 14 11:26 AM-
rattyuk
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9 Comments
Sep 14 11:40 AMBecause unlike windows not everything runs as a root user.
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nukldrager
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246 Comments
Sep 14 12:10 PM-
Brandon
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77 Comments
Sep 14 01:05 PMThe success of these stores is wholly reliant on the popularity of their product line, therefore of very little value when determining future earnings. Sharper Image is a perfect example of this.
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Viswakarma
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9 Comments
Sep 14 01:25 PM-
Viswakarma
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9 Comments
Sep 14 01:29 PM-
Jon T
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330 Comments
Sep 14 02:15 PMWindows is a spaghetti omelette made of rotten eggs....
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Constable Odo
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44 Comments
Sep 14 02:28 PM-
brewer
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422 Comments
Sep 14 07:57 PMApple is taking the market back from Microsoft. Profits are racking up in the billions, iPhone money is not even being reported, therefore a lot of dim WS types are only looking at PE ratios which are very misleading for APPL.
I thought for awhile that Apple should license to clone vendors. I don't think they are going to do that. Check roughlydrafted.com for details on this issue. What I do think they will do, next month in fact, is come out with a terrific lower-end product which will be impossible for any other tech company to compete with (like iPhone).
I think WS has wind of this as well, and that is why they are driving down the stock. They want to buy as cheaply as possible so that when it explodes after the next earnings and product announcements, there will be that much more profit for them.
The back to school quarter for apple this time is going to be a jaw dropper. They bundled iPod touch (or nano if anyone chose that) with every laptop or iMac sold to higher ed buyers. I believe this will not only set a record for the most mac sold (that happens almost every quarter) but I think they could be on track to double any past record.
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winindthedust
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36 Comments
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Sep 14 10:30 PMNot only did we save money, we are making more money with the increased production.
Worker moral is higher, too, with the decrease in frustration factor that come with IT support issues.
IT staff, can be retained for other functions, such as web site development, training & resource management, documentation development, etc.
All money in the bank.
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winindthedust
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36 Comments
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Sep 14 10:51 PMSomeone can email you a virus on a mac, but it can't execute, because of this simple fact.
To be hacked, you would have to knowingly, or unwittingly, hand someone the keys to your computer, or they would have to steel your user name & password through either physical access or observation, or "spoofing", that is tricking you into giving them your keys. Both of these scenarios are highly unlikely.
Even if they got physical access on your machine, they could not load a data logger, spyware, or virus execution program, without knowing your administrator password.
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frank90291
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21 Comments
Sep 15 12:09 PM-
Neil Anderson
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136 Comments
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Sep 17 11:49 PM